And maybe that latter characteristic is what matters most right now. They’re convenient measuring sticks and fun talking points. Ultimately, however, big shiny numbers don’t really matter anyway when it comes to indexes. But getting there by next year seems possible by 2025, Dow 40,000 and S&P 5,000 seem very reachable, if not likely. I doubt the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq will hit any of the aforementioned benchmarks this calendar year (definitely not the Nasdaq). Even as we look toward brighter days in which the market isn’t tethered to the whims of the Fed or the decimal points in the monthly CPI reports, it can take time – years, in some cases – for stocks to claw their way out of a bear market.īut chances are, stock prices will be higher a year from now than they are today. Of course, here’s the part where I remind you that past returns are not indicative of future performance. But I wouldn’t rule it out entirely in 2024 or 2025. A 65% advance from here could take a couple years. It crossed the 15,000-point barrier for the first time in August 2021 and even poked its head above 16,000 briefly in November of that year before the bear market began in earnest. It was up 21% in 2021 despite all the ups and downs and didn’t even cross the 10,000 barrier until June 2020. But remember, the Nasdaq – heavy on the tech stocks that led the 2020 rally (though they’ve encountered the most turbulence over the last 16 months) and leaders of this decade-plus bull market – moves much faster than the benchmark S&P 500 and the stodgier, dividend dinosaur-heavy Dow. The question is how much?Īs for Nasdaq 20,000, that would take a heftier 65% advance. Those are pretty overwhelming odds that the S&P will be up this year. Ryan Detrick or Carson Research Group, who is a great follow on Twitter ( says that a very bullish thing just happened: The S&P stayed above its December 2022 low during the entire first quarter of this year, which in 36 previous occurrences dating back to 1950 has resulted in positive full-year returns in the large-cap index 34 times, with an average return of 18.6%. In fact, it could be as soon as next year. All it would take to push the S&P over 5,000 is a 22% return, which may seem like a lot given current market sentiment, but is not outside of the realm of possibility in the next few years. And despite the rocky 15 months since, it’s only 15% off those highs.
Heck, the large-cap index touched as high as 4,700 to end 2021. The S&P 500 getting to 5,000 seems just as attainable… But a 20% bump during that time seems more than reasonable, especially after the index has pulled back for more than a year. Don’t expect another 74% in the next three years. All told, the most staid of the three major indexes is up 74% in the three years since bottoming after the March/April 2020 coronavirus crash. Now it’s over 33,000-despite the fact that the Dow has been the slowest-rising of the three major stock market indexes, though it also fell a lot less than the other two in 2022. Remember when Dow 20,000 was such a huge milestone? That was six years ago. Right now, all three of those market benchmarks seem really far off. With that in mind, here’s a fun question to contemplate: How long will it be until we get to Dow 40,000, S&P 5,000 and the Nasdaq 20,000? There’s a tinge of optimism in the air, for the first time in a while. And yet … stocks are showing more signs of life than they have since 2021.
history just happened, and the federal funds rate is up to 5%.
Inflation is still at multi-decade highs, two of the three largest bank collapses in U.S.
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